Friday, January 27, 2012

Post by Mike
Here is an interesting chart that shows Georgia as being relatively stable as far as values are concerned. Before the crash in years 2000-2006 the state was in the 0-40% price change range. After the crash 2006-2010 we are in the -20-0% range, and for the 10 year period 2000-2010 we are still positive in the 0-40% category.



Thursday, January 26, 2012

Loan modification plan actually gives the banks some cover.

Post by Mike
For a man that claims to care about the average Joe, this President is about to plow struggling home owners. Even this left leaning web site calls him on the plan and exposes how he will rob your 401k in the process. Please forward.

Naked Capitalism _ Obama gives the banks a get out jail free card.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Mitt Romney's State of The Union

Post by Mike
Okay, this is a man who understands the problem from a business perspective. There is no class warfare or HOPEY CHANGEY wishing for utopia. He gets it. These are excerpts from a speech made by Mitt Romney. His remarks are in bold. Read them and ask yourself who is best fit to address our current problems.

We’re just so overleveraged, so much debt in our society, and some of the institutions that hold it aren’t willing to write it off and say they made a mistake, they loaned too much, we’re overextended, write those down and start over. They keep on trying to harangue and pretend what they have on their books is still what it’s worth.


The banks are scared to death, of course, because they think they’re going to go out of business… They’re afraid that if they write all these loans off, they’re going to go broke. And so they’re feeling the same thing you’re feeling. They just want to pretend all of this is going to get paid someday so they don’t have to write it off and potentially go out of business themselves.”


This is cascading throughout our system and in some respects government is trying to just hold things in place, hoping things get better… My own view is you recognize the distress, you take the loss and let people reset. Let people start over again, let the banks start over again. Those that are prudent will be able to restart, those that aren’t will go out of business. This effort to try and exact the burden of their mistakes on homeowners and commercial property owners, I think, is a mistake.

Link here: Mitt Romney's State of The Union

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Post by Mike
The AJC is reporting several major banks have reached a settlement of $25-billion for improper mortgage practices. Link to the story here: http://www.ajc.com/business/25-billion-mortgage-settlement-1314190.html

My question is... ARE YOU KIDDING ME? $25-billion? TARP was $700-billion and all they can muster is $25-billion?

The timing of this is somewhat suspicious. Expect to hear something about it in Huesein's campaign speech.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Hard data pointing to a loaded spring.


Post by Mike
Conditions are right for a big swing in the housing and real estate recovery, and here is hard data showing we are sitting on top of a loaded spring.

Last week I suggested that inventories, values and interest rates were at low levels. Today I found the following charts. The first one is from the U.S. Treasury and presented by the CFR. It shows how home prices have declined since the end of the recession as compared to the other post war recovery averages.

My theory is that the inventory was so large (and lending so loose in the boom) that working the mess through the pipeline had caused this deflation.




The next chart is from the St. Louis Fed. It shows M2, or the money supply. Obviously, the FED has been pushing money into the system. The only problem is it has not been reaching the broader economy, as shown in the third chart which is the velocity, or movement of money. 




While the FED has been doing it's part, the banking sector and corporate America appear to be sitting on piles of cash. Also notice the low interest rates.

Like a compressed spring, the tension is building in the system. At some point buyers are going to borrow, banks are going to lend, and all that money on the sidelines will spill into the market.

When that happens, you are going to see the bull return to the real estate sector. Why real estate instead of stocks? A few reasons - 1 - Wall Street has lost a lot of trust. 2 - Real Estate is depressed. People like to buy low and sell high.

Get ready, the real estate market will inflate again.  




Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Market inventory hits a three year low.

Post by Mike
A comparison of the last three years in the local real estate market may be indicating a market bottom. The attached is data pulled from the Albany MLS system.

First the bad news:
-Overall, the market has contracted by $25-million since 2009. Gross residential sales for that year in the Dougherty and Lee County markets were $125-million, while gross sales in 2011 totaled $100-million.

-Average sales price has also dropped in the same period from $146,824 to $134,155.

Now the good news:
-The total MLS inventory for the market at the end of December was a total of 779 properties. That is the lowest that number has been in three years.

Values are down, inventory is down and interest rates are down. The market could be on the edge of revival.


Click the image to enlarge the report:

Thursday, December 1, 2011

The State of Mass is sueing the big 5!

Post by Mike
I wonder if this will spread to other States like the tobbaco litigation did?

http://www.mass.gov/ago/news-and-updates/press-releases/2011/five-national-banks-sued-by-ag-coakley.html

Five National Banks Sued by AG Coakley in Connection with Illegal Foreclosures and Loan Servicing
First Comprehensive Lawsuit to Address Foreclosure Crisis Seeks to Hold Banks Accountable For Illegal and Deceptive Conduct
Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, Citi, and GMAC All Named As Defendants; Mortgage Electronic Registration System (“MERS”) Also Sued

BOSTON – Five national banks have been sued in connection with their roles in allegedly pursuing illegal foreclosures on properties in Massachusetts as well as deceptive loan servicing, Attorney General Martha Coakley announced today. The lawsuit was filed today in Suffolk Superior Court against Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, Citi, and GMAC. It also names Mortgage Electronic Registration System, Inc. (“MERS”) and its parent, MERSCORP Inc., as defendants.

“The single most important thing we can do to return to a healthy economy is to address this foreclosure crisis,” said AG Coakley. “Our suit alleges that the banks have charted a destructive path by cutting corners and rushing to foreclose on homeowners without following the rule of law. Our action today seeks real accountability for the banks illegal behavior and real relief for homeowners.”

In the complaint , the Attorney General alleges these five entities engaged in unfair and deceptive trade practices in violation of Massachusetts’ law by:

Pervasive use of fraudulent documentation in the foreclosure process, including so-called “robo-signing”;
Foreclosing without holding the actual mortgage (“Ibanez” violations);
Corrupting Massachusetts’ land recording system through the use of MERS;
Failing to uphold loan modification promises to Massachusetts homeowners.
USE OF FALSE DOCUMENTS TO EXPEDITE FORECLOSURES “ROBO-SIGNING”:

According to the complaint, the banks used false documentation in the foreclosure process, including so-called “robo-signing”, whereby bank personnel signed affidavits that were untrue, or not based on the signor’s actual knowledge. An entity wishing to foreclose on a property must demonstrate it has filed an affidavit in compliance with Massachusetts law. By October 2010, the banks’ flagrant disregard of affidavit and notary process requirements became widely known. Filings with various Registers of Deeds provided to the Attorney General’s Office revealed the pervasive use of mortgage service employees to sign hundreds of affidavits and sworn statements without personal knowledge of the information contained in those affidavits. Evidence also suggests these practices were not confined to the foreclosure process, but also used in the assignment, transfer and modification of mortgages secured by property in Massachusetts.

FORECLOSING WITHOUT LEGAL AUTHORITY “IBANEZ VIOLATIONS”:

Second, these five entities participated in unlawful foreclosures when they commenced foreclosures on mortgages where they were not the holders of those mortgages. The Supreme Judicial Court (SJC), in Commonwealth v Ibanez, recently upheld Massachusetts law and stated that “only the present holder of a mortgage is authorized to foreclose on the mortgaged property.” The complaint alleges that these entities ignored this fundamental legal mandate and proceeded to foreclosure even though they did not hold the mortgage, and thus had no legal authority to conduct the foreclosure. The banks’ failure to obtain a valid assignment of the mortgage prior to foreclosure has adversely impacted titles to hundreds, if not thousands, of properties in the Commonwealth. The complaint alleges that the banks falsely claimed to be the holder of a mortgage in several foreclosure documents even though they failed to obtain a valid assignment of the mortgage.

UNDERMINING PUBLIC RECORDS “MERS”:

Third, the complaint alleges that these banks have undermined our public land record system through the use of MERS, a private electronic registry system. According to the complaint, the creation and use of MERS was adopted by these defendants primarily to avoid land registration and recording requirements, including payment of recording and registration fees, and to facilitate sales of mortgage loans. The use of MERS has resulted in a lack of transparency as to the entities that have the legal authority to enforce mortgages, and unfairly conceals from borrowers the true identity of the holder of the debt. Since 1997, more than 63 million home loans have been registered on the MERS System, accounting for more than 60 percent of all newly-originated mortgage loans. The complaint also alleges that through the use of the MERS system, the banks unlawfully failed to register assignments of mortgages and transfers of the beneficial interests in mortgages.

MISREPRESENTING LOAN MODIFICATION PROGRAMS:

Finally, the complaint alleges the banks deceived and misrepresented to borrowers the process, requirements, and availability of loan modifications. The banks publically claimed to be engaged in widespread loan modifications aimed at preserving home ownership and avoiding unnecessary foreclosures. Through the National Homeownership Retention Program, which commenced on November 6, 2008, these banks represented that they would work with borrowers to help them avoid unnecessary foreclosures by reducing monthly mortgage payments to affordable and sustainable levels. The complaint alleges these banks misled borrowers about their eligibility for this program and the amount of relief available, failed to achieve a significant level of modifications, and often strung along borrowers for months in trial modifications that were ultimately rejected.

The AG’s lawsuit seeks civil penalties, restitution for harm to borrowers and compensation for registration fees that were avoided. The lawsuit also seeks to hold the banks accountable through permanent injunctive relief to provide a solution for prior unlawful foreclosures and to require that the banks, going forward, register assignments and other documents in accordance with Massachusetts law.

The lawsuit follows more than a year of negotiations with the banks over a 50-state settlement focused around the issues of fraudulent documents, including “robo-signing.” AG Coakley had made clear that she would not sign on to an agreement with the banks if it included broad liability release regarding MERS and other issues or if she did not believe the banks had come to the table with an offer in the best interest of Massachusetts.

AG Coakley’s office has been a national leader in holding banks and investment giants accountable for their roles in the economic crisis. AG Coakley has obtained recoveries from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland, Countrywide, Fremont Investment & Loan, Option One, and others on behalf of Massachusetts homeowners. As a result of these actions, her office has recovered more than $600 million in relief for investors and borrowers, helped keep more than 25,400 people in their homes, and returned nearly $60 million in taxpayer funds back to the Commonwealth.

More information about AG Coakley’s work during the lending crisis can be found here .

The lawsuit is being handled by Attorney General Martha Coakley’s Consumer Protection Division, including Assistant Attorneys General Amber Villa, John Stephan, Sara Cable, and Justin Lowe; Acting Division Chief David Monahan; Chris Barry-Smith, Chief of the Public Protection & Advocacy Bureau and Stephanie Kahn, Deputy Chief of the Public Protection & Advocacy Bureau.